Business

Editor: evewen
30 Oct 2008 02:01:49 GMT

NEW YORK, Oct 29 - Global pharmaceutical sales
growth is expected to hold steady in 2009 with anemic growth of
1 percent to 2 percent seen in the United States as generic
competition, fewer new drug launches and an economic slowdown
take a toll, according to an annual forecast from IMS Health.

The worldwide market is expected to grow 4.5 percent to 5.5
percent in 2009 with sales surpassing $820 billion, as
double-digit growth in emerging markets helps offset the
snail’s pace of growth in the world’s biggest market, according
to IMS, which provides data on prescription medicine sales and
trends.

The market will contend with a number of forces in 2009,
such as multibillion-dollar drugs losing patent protection, the
rising influence of regulators and reimbursement on health-care
decisions and niche products playing a larger role, Murray
Aitken, IMS’s senior vice president for Healthcare Insight,
said in a statement.

Blockbuster medicines expected to go off patent next year
include Takeda Pharmaceutical Co’s Prevacid acid reflux drug
and Johnson & Johnson’s Topamax for epilepsy.

Adding to those factors is uncertainty over the impact a
lengthy and deepening economic downturn might have as people
lose health insurance or stop filling costly prescriptions.

“The economy is one of the more prominent wild card factors
in the forecast,” Diana Conmy, director of Market Insights for
IMS, admitted in an interview.

The U.S. market is still expected to generate 2009 sales of
$292 billion to $302 billion with the worsening economy and
fewer new product launches having an impact.

New product approvals are at historically low levels, IMS
said, with only 25 to 30 new chemical entities slated for
launch in 2009, including potentially prominent entries in the
diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis arenas.

But those numbers may be optimistic given recent foot
dragging by U.S. regulators, who have been letting action dates
for approval decisions pass without rulings and delays of three
months or more becoming more common.

The top five European markets — France, Germany, Italy,
Spain and Britain — are forecast to grow 3 percent to 4
percent next year with sales reaching $162 million to $172
billion, while the Japanese pharmaceutical market is seen
growing 4 percent to 5 percent in 2009, reaching $84 billion to
$88 billion.

Growth at a far higher rate is projected for the emerging
markets of China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey
and Russia. IMS sees combined growth from those nations of 14
percent to 15 percent with sales of $105 billion to $115
billion, helped by increased government health-care spending.

“What we continue to see is an evolution of the global
pharmaceutical market place,” Conmy said. “We’re still seeing
growth, but it is in different places than it has been
historically.”

Cancer treatments are expected to increase 15 percent to 16
percent over 2008 levels of $48 billion to $52 billion.

Double-digit growth rates are also projected for HIV
antiviral medicines and narcotic pain drugs.

“We’re seeing a slowing of primary care-driven products and
higher growth in specialist driven products,” Conmy said.