Beijing Olympic Games

Prediction: Coughlin will succeed in grand style

By Janet Evans, Yahoo! Sports

I couldn’t wait for Tuesday’s 100-meter backstroke race at the U.S. Olympic swimming trials, and Olympic veteran Natalie Coughlin didn’t disappoint. Clocking a 58.97, Coughlin won the event and made her third Olympic team in grand style, breaking her own world record and becoming the first woman in history to swim the event below 59 seconds. With Coughlin leading the swim from start to finish, the real race was for second place and the remaining berth for this event in Beijing. Although Hayley McGregory seemed poised to grab a spot along Coughlin – she was second in Monday’s preliminaries after briefly breaking Coughlin’s world record and was the fastest qualifier after last night’s semifinals – she was passed towards the end of tonight’s race by 2004 Olympian Margaret Hoelzer.

McGregory’s disappointing result proved that the swim that really matters at the Olympic trials is the finals. Hoelzer’s second place effort was clocked in at 59.21, while McGregory’s third-place finish was 59.42. In a disappointing twist of fate for McGregory, her 59.15 swim from yesterday’s preliminaries would have easily qualified her for Beijing – if only she could have swam that fast when it really mattered.

I must admit that I was also pretty excited for Monday’s 100 breaststroke. In my opinion, the eight-women final was one of the deepest Olympic trials fields in recent memory. Prior to the race, I couldn’t pick a winner. Would it be former 100 breast world record holder Jessica Hardy? Or the 2000 Olympic champion, Megan Jendrick? What about Tara Kirk, who swam this race at the 2004 Athens Olympics? Or Jessica Soni, the USC standout who, after a summer of fast swimming, seemed poised to make the 2008 team in this event? And of course, how could we rule out the 2004 Olympic champion in the 200 breaststroke, Amanda Beard?

In the end, Jessica Hardy persevered with her usual style of taking the race out fast and hanging on for the win, clocking a 1:06.87. Seemingly out of the race for second, Megan Jendrick surged on Tara Kirk in the last few meters, touching Kirk out at the wall with a 1:07.50 to Kirk’s 1:07.51, a difference that can only be described as heartbreaking for Kirk. Soni and Beard finished a distant fourth and sixth, respectively. Like McGregory in the 100 back, Soni’s 1:06.87 from Monday’s semis would have tied Hardy’s first-place effort from the final and would have easily qualified her for the team.

WHAT WE LEARNED TUESDAY

Although the 100 breastroke and 100 backstroke are obviously two separate events, they are incredibly close in lessons learned from Tuesday’s finals. These races are glaring reminders that the U.S. Olympic trials are probably more competitive than the Olympic games themselves. The talent and depth of United States swimming is second-to-none, and that bodes well for the status of our team as Beijing draws near. Unfortunately, there is a negative side to that statement, and it is that many, many talented and deserving U.S. swimmers will leave our Olympic trials without a spot on the team.

I also was reminded Tuesday of how much more goes into the making of an Olympian than simply swimming fast. A large part of qualifying for our team is being able to stand on the starting blocks during the finals – when it really matters – and swim to the best of your ability. Olympians are the best in the world at dealing with pressure and nerves, because in the end, you have to control them in order to succeed.

Specific to Tuesday night’s races, I predict that Natalie Coughlin will defend her Olympic title in the 100-meter backstroke. Coughlin is one of the best in the world when it comes to swimming under pressure, and this will help her rise to the occasion in Beijing. The women’s 100 breaststroke could be a bit more of a challenge, as Australian Leisel Jones has dominated this event the past four years. However, I wouldn’t put anything past the determination and experience of Hardy and Jendrick. Just like at these Olympic trials, I believe that the 100 backstroke and 100 breaststroke will be two of the most exciting women’s races in Beijing.

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT WEDNESDAY

Wednesday night could easily be called “the Natalie and Katie show.” The only question is: How will Katie Hoff fare swimming two finals races virtually back to back?

200 freestyle: I consider this event to be a virtual lock for Hoff. After cruising to a 1:57.92 victory in the semifinals, I predict Hoff will lead this race from the wire, leaving Allison Schmitt, Julia Smitt and Caroline Burckle to battle it out for second place. What I love best about this race is that six women from the final will qualify for the Olympic team, thanks to the 4×200 relay in Beijing. Finally, a race that leaves six women happy at the end rather than disappointed!

200 individual medley: Now this is where Wednesday evening will really get exciting, as America’s two biggest female stars, Coughlin and Hoff, will race head-to-head. Hoff was the former American record holder in this event until Coughlin smashed her record a few short weeks ago. Tuesday, Hoff set the bar by qualifying first in these semis, but Coughlin looked easy and stretched-out while qualifying third. Although Ariana Kukors is second going into tomorrow night’s final, there is no question who the real race is between. Based on Tuesday’s semifinals and the fact that Hoff will be coming off of her 200 freestyle final, I place my bet on Coughlin to win. And to top it off, I predict that it will be in world-record time.